Fernando Mendoza 2026 Prospect Profile

Where does Indiana's new QB stack up

Moving on to my fifth in-depth evaluation of 2026 draft-eligible and likely QBs, we look at Fernando Mendoza, former Cal Golden Bear and current Indiana Hoosier, today. He had the best half game of any prospect I have watched, but everything else left me scratching my head.

Background

Fernando Mendoza, born in Miami, Florida, is a grandson of Cuban immigrants. Trying to find much about his high school career does not bring up much, and it shows in where his recruiting rankings ended up. His On3 Industry composite ranking was a three-star QB with only 247 and ESPN giving him a positional ranking of 145th and 72nd, respectively. It is evident that Mendoza was quite a good student, though, as the schools that offered him originally were Lehigh, Penn, and the school he initially committed to, Yale. Continuing in the vein of excellent schools, he switched his commitment to join Justin Wilcox and the Cal Golden Bears in February of his Senior year. He redshirted his first season on campus, but won the starting QB job halfway into his second year, and continued to hold it his third year on campus. After the end of the 2024 season, Mendoza entered the transfer portal and decided to play for Curt Cignetti and his staff at Indiana.

Physical Attributes

Standing at 6’5” tall and weighing a somewhat suspect 225 lbs, Mendoza has the height desired, but could use some extra weight to help absorb some of the hits he takes. His first step is surprisingly quick for someone his size, but he does not pair that with anything other than average long speed. His arm can be a rocket launcher. He didn’t get to show it off too much this past year on deep throws, but had many Cam Newton-esque balls thrown 10 yards downfield that could take someone’s head off. He will also turn 22 during the season this year, so he will not be one of the recent strings of older QBs if he declares this year.

Data and Tape Analysis

If you are unfamiliar with my QB radar charts, you can find more information here.

The Auburn first half was MAGICAL. There is no other way to put it. At the end of that half, I thought I might be looking at my new QB1. If you haven’t had the chance to see it, go watch it. I’ll wait.

For those who did not see it, that was Mendoza, playing in the most hostile environment he has ever stepped foot in, going 19/21 for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He also had some good runs in there, including a pivotal 3rd and 7 conversion with his legs that helped set up Cal’s major upset victory on the road at Jordan-Hare Stadium. If you wanted an example of everything that makes Mendoza a top prospect, this is all the tape you need. Balls were perfectly placed to the receivers. The back-shoulder throws were *chefs kiss* be-a-u-tiful. His ability to avoid pressure and step up into the pocket to find open receivers was on display, combined with his ability to roll out of the pocket and do the same. He made quick decisions to find open receivers, and the ball got there in the blink of an eye. He was throwing off a consistent base that let him get all that juice on the ball. The only thing he did not show was the deep ball, but more on that in a second. I cannot say enough about how great this half was, and if you are an evaluator who chases the highest level of performance a prospect has shown you, I could see why maybe you had Mendoza as the top QB in the class. The arm talent is greater than any other QB has shown me so far, and this is the best example.

Then, with 1:22 left in that first half, the cracks began to show. Mendoza took two bad sacks in a row to take Cal out of scoring potential to end the half. And as you can see from the radar chart, sacks were a big problem. And this is not some fluke of small numbers. He was pressured on just over a third of his total dropbacks, but still took 40 sacks. Meaning he had an abysmal pressure-to-sack rate of 25.6. This is not entirely Mendoza’s fault. Once teams figured out the Cal offensive line was not that good, they started teeing off, and the offensive design did not help with the lack of hot routes at his disposal, but you would like to see fewer sacks from a high-end prospect.

When he had time in the pocket, he often delivered an on-target and in rhythm ball, but as the season wore on, he began to rush through his mechanics, which led to a bit of spraying from an accuracy perspective. More worringly than the rushing of his mechanics was the rushing of his reads. He would often see a player open, not the linebacker dropping into coverage or the corner coming up to make a play on the ball. That led to several turnovers and is another major area for him to improve.

From a data perspective, I am not worried about his aDOT or Y/PA because of how the offense had to set up with the deficiencies at the offensive line spot. Of the few deep balls he did throw, quite a few were overcooked, but it looks like that goes back to the rushing of his mechanics.

Grade and Outlook

Fernando Mendoza is a tantalizing prospect who has the most interesting setup for his upcoming season. Curt Cignetti knows how to get QBs playing well, and most of Mendoza’s issues are problems that QBs usually solve with experience and good coaching. That makes me optimistic about the outlook, but right now, he has not shown that he can outgrow his bad pocket presence, which leads to his horrific sack-taking and sped-up process. Again, if I had never watched anything after 1:30 left in the first half of the Auburn game, I would think Mendoza was the next star in the making, but it was hard to ignore the rest.

Grade: 6.2 / 10 (Late 1st)